Abstract

We revisit the optimal long-run inflation rate using 777 estimates from 116 primary studies published between 1989 and 2026, the largest sample assembled to date. To our knowledge, this is among the first meta-analyses in economics whose primary-data extraction is performed end-to-end through a documented and auditable large-language-model pipeline, calibrated against a hand-coded training set and released for replication. Across publication-selection and selection-on-significance diagnostics that are applicable in this calibration-dominated corpus, the literature points to an optimum of roughly 0.6 percentage points per year, well below the two-percent targets commonly used by advanced-economy central banks. Bayesian model averaging over the full structural-moderator schema shows that cross-study variation is driven by genuine modelling choices, the choice of monetary benchmark (Friedman rule vs. laissez-faire), the transactions-frictions technology, the assumed shock structure, and the class of nominal-rigidity contract, rather than by selective reporting.

Distribution of reported optimal inflation rates: bimodal, with mass near 0 and near 2 percent, and a paper-level mean of 0.6 percent
Fig: The literature is bimodal — one mode near price stability, one near the two-percent target

Histogram of 777 reported optimal inflation rates (in percent per year) from 116 primary studies, winsorised at the 5th and 95th percentiles. Solid red line: zero inflation (price stability). Dashed orange line: the two-percent central-bank target. Dotted black line: the literature's median.

Reference: Matej Opatrny, Martin Opatrny, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova, Mojmir Hampl (2026), "Optimal Inflation Rate: A Meta-Analysis." Charles University, Prague. Available at meta-analysis.cz/inflation.

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Headline result

Optimal long-run inflation rate: the meta-analytic estimate is about 0.6% per year (calibration-dominated model literature), based on 777 estimates from 116 primary studies (Opatrny et al. 2026).

How to cite

Matej Opatrny, Martin Opatrny, Tomas Havranek, Zuzana Irsova, Mojmir Hampl (2026), "Optimal Inflation Rate: A Meta-Analysis." Charles University, Prague. Available at meta-analysis.cz/inflation.

BibTeX 
@misc{opatrny2026inflation,
  author  = {Matej Opatrny and Martin Opatrny and Tomas Havranek and Zuzana Irsova and Mojmir Hampl},
  title   = {Optimal Inflation Rate: A Meta-Analysis},
  year    = {2026},
}