Abstract

We present a meta-regression analysis of the relation between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changes in global temperature. The relation is captured by "climate sensitivity," which measures the response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels. Estimates of climate sensitivity play a crucial role in evaluating the impacts of climate change and constitute one of the most important inputs into the computation of the social cost of carbon, which reflects the socially optimal value of a carbon tax. Climate sensitivity has been estimated by many researchers, but their results vary significantly. We collect 48 estimates from 16 studies and analyze the literature quantitatively. We find evidence for publication selection bias: researchers tend to report preferentially large estimates of climate sensitivity. Corrected for publication bias, the bulk of the literature is consistent with climate sensitivity lying between 1.4 and 2.3 degrees Celsius.


Reference: Dominika Reckova and Zuzana Irsova (2015), "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change." Energy and Environment 26 (5), 853-862.

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Headline result

Climate sensitivity (warming from a doubling of CO2): corrected for publication bias, 1.4-2.3 degrees Celsius (all 48 published estimates from 16 studies, literature search closed March 2014; the IPCC AR6 Working Group I report, published six years later in 2021, gives a best estimate near 3 C), based on 48 estimates from 16 studies (Reckova and Irsova 2015, Energy and Environment).

How to cite

Dominika Reckova and Zuzana Irsova (2015), "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change." Energy and Environment 26 (5), 853-862.

BibTeX 
@article{reckova2015climate,
  author  = {Dominika Reckova and Zuzana Irsova},
  title   = {Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change},
  journal = {Energy and Environment},
  year    = {2015},
  doi     = {10.1260/0958-305x.26.5.853},
}